Stock Technical Analysis: Wk of 9/14/09
Nasdaq continues to trade within the rising wedge pattern. Unlike the presumption made last week around how it may be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, QQQQ broke the resistance and made a new high. The bulls are very strong still, and it continues to bully around the bears. Like I say every week, if you’re looking to play the Nasdaq, look for this pattern to break, in which you’d expect a trend change.
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
Financials did not show as much strength as the techs and other indices. It’s consolidating at the previous resistance and is failing to break out. Breaking out from the trendline (in blue) a few weeks ago, the financials still is a contender for the head-and-shoulders pattern.
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Similar to what I eluded to for Nasdaq (QQQQ), SPY is still going strong breaking through the previous resistance and making a new high. This bullish trend is resilient and continues to test new highs. If you’re not already long and are looking to take some long positions, hope for a pull-back here before getting in.
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) made quite a come back this past week rallying as much as 1% in a day. Everything’s all good? Not quite. There are several factors investors should be concerned about. If you’re looking to play natural gas via UNG, know this before you move in:
1) Sept roll dates quickly approaching starting 9/14/09, which would be impacted by the contango effect.
2) UNG will start issuing new shares now, which will start to reduce the premium investors are paying right now on UNG. The premium now at 16% above the NAV, it was as high as 20+% at one time because of its inability to issue new shares. Now that this limitation is lifted, expect the premium reduction to eat away the price in the next weeks.
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
GLD broke through the symmetrical triangle pattern and has rallied since. However, GLD has not been able to break the next big resistance of $99. Some say this is the start of a reversal and a time to short GLD. I am personally skeptical at that prediction and would not be surprised at all to see Gold break through the $99 resistance.
General Electric (GE) Requested by Eric Staedt
General Electric (GE) traded flat last week, failing to break through the previous support. GE really needs to get past this strong resistance if it wants to continue the recent rally. If you’re looking to play GE, be patient here! It’s dangerous to play either side when you don’t have much data to support it.