Stock Technical Analysis: Wk of 7/27/09

Nasdaq (QQQQ) lost its huge momentum late Friday as it started to taper down from the day’s high.  Many people I follow are starting to short QQQQ expecting a temporary pull back.  Even though I’m all cash at this moment, QQQQ short is something I’m eyeing on myself.  It had a huge rally and would expect some pull back.  AMZN and MSFT missed and were trading down, and I’d expect Nasdaq to lose some steam here.

SPDR Financial (XLF)

The financials continue to be lagging behind the other indices like Nasdaq.  Despite DOW observed the strongest 2 weeks gain since 2000, XLF failed to rally similarly.  It is now sitting above the 50 day MA and started consolidating again in a choppy session last week.  I’ve played some shorts in the financials earlier but I’m staying out of it for the time being now.  If it fails to break through the $13 support, I’m looking to get back into the short side.

S&P 500 (SPY)

The bulls broke through the critical resistance rather easily as shorts started to cover quickly. It’s been one hell of a feat for the last 2 weeks.  Now everyone’s talking about the next big resistance fo S&P 1000.  Bulls seem to brush off anything negative and feed off of anything minutely positive.  I’m currently all cash at the moment waiting for the next move.  I personally don’t want to get caught in the swing amid the earnings season.  If you’re long right now, there’s no reason to sell at this point.

United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)

Sold my UNG long last Tuesday thinking it’s starting to consolidate and thus time to sell.  Then I banged my head against the wall after the following day’s rally.  Then the ETF reversed losing all of Wednesday’s gain and then some.  Holy crap UNG is one hell of an ETF, and it’s one of the choppiest stock/ETF in my watchlist.
UNG bounced off of the support level Friday and had a pretty decent gain.  I’m tempted to play long here again this week, but it’s rather too choppy for my taste.  If you’re long, I don’t see any reason why you’d get rid of it here, but if I were shorting this, I’d put a stop-loss at ~$14.5, slightly above the resistance level (I don’t like to have stop-loss right at the support/resistance level since it’s never all that exact.  This allows me to avoid triggering my stop-loss order too prematurely)

Ford (F) requested by Gary, Jerry, and Wes

Ford nicely gained position until the earnings report on Thursday.  After Ford beat the estimates, it gapped up breaking through the critical support line.  It’s a bit early to tell if it’s going to hold this level given Friday was a pretty weak day, but it’s looking more bullish for sure now.  If you’ve been short and still hold some short position, I’d consider taking a loss here.  If you’re thinking about going long, give it a bit more time to confirm this is a breakout.  If you’re long already, cheers.